Former Vice-President Dr Mahamudu Bawumia may have earned a comfortable victory in the New Patriotic Party (NPP) presidential primary, but he will have to do more to claw back the considerable deficit in votes he recorded in the 2024 presidential election, two political scientists and a pollster have said.
All three maintain that the record of the past administration in which Dr Bawumia served as Vice-President would impact his electoral fortunes negatively unless a dramatic situation arises.
In separate interviews with the Daily Graphic, Dr John Osae-Kwapong of the Democracy Project; the Head of the Department of Political Science of the University for Development Studies (UDS), Dr Gbensuglo Alidu Bukari, and Mussa Dankwah of Global InfoAnalytics, narrowed the 2028 elections down to records and credibility.
Dr Bawumia secured a decisive victory in last Saturday’s presidential primary, polling 110,643 votes, representing 56.48 per cent of the total votes cast, to lead the NPP once again into a major election.
Historical record
Dr Osae-Kwapong said confronting Dr Bawumia “is the party’s 2024 electoral defeat against the backdrop of the country’s post COVID-19 economy”.
“His ability to overcome this electoral deficit will require some reconciliation between the 2016 electoral narrative and promises, the reality of what Ghanaians experienced, admission of lessons learned, and how a Dr Bawumia administration will chart a different path if elected.
I believe that developing a single coherent narrative to ‘sell’ to the Ghanaian voter is what can potentially enable him to overturn the deficit.
But one must keep in mind, the counter narratives that will also be developed by his main political opponents — the NDC,” Dr Osae-Kwapong said.
He said electing Dr Bawumia almost three years to the next poll was not necessarily an advantage.
“Electoral advantage is not only a function of length of time, but several other factors such as the state of the economy at the time of the election, the candidate of their main political rivals, the disposition of the Ghanaian voter,” he said.
“Election is about numbers.
A candidate’s victory has three parts — party members, independent voters and cross overs from their other side of the political aisle.
The biggest component will come from party members, which means unity is extremely important.
After an intense primary with sometimes very harsh rhetoric, uniting all factions is essential.
“The losing candidates’ pledge of unity and support was refreshing to hear during the official declaration at the party’s headquarters.
Unity will be important as the candidate cannot afford a repeat of what happened in 2024 — apathy among NPP voters,” the respected academic said.
Strategic gamble
Dr Bukari said the decision to elect the presidential candidate almost three years ahead of the 2028 general election was a strategic gamble, with both potential benefits and risks.
“It definitely provides the candidate ample time to consolidate internal support of the party.
It will also help articulate a coherent policy vision and rebuild the party’s grassroots machinery after the 2024 electoral setback.
“However, a long pre-election period can also expose the candidate to political fatigue, sustained opposition attacks, and the risk of internal dissent if unresolved factional grievances persist,” Dr Bukari said.
He added that personal credibility, “such as his governance experience, technocratic competence, national appeal, credible counter argument, and perceived integrity, will matter greatly”.
The UDS Senior Lecturer said credentials alone were insufficient, and that “broader structural issues, including economic hardship, voter dissatisfaction with his performance in the past, credibility question and policy failures, shaped the 2024 defeat”.
He said reconciliation would be central to the NPP’s chances in 2028, a process he believed would prove a challenge.
“Historically, internal fragmentation has been costly for Ghanaian political parties.
Given the acrimonious nature of the just-ended party presidential primary, effective reconciliation through inclusive party leadership, equitable distribution of campaign roles and symbolic gestures of unity would be critical to preventing apathy, sabotage or protest voting within the party’s base.
Reconciliation is not merely about elite cohesion; it must extend to grassroots activists whose mobilisation is essential for electoral competitiveness,” Dr Bukari said.
He concluded that the early presidential candidate selection by the NPP could be an advantage, “but only if it is matched with strategic renewal, credible leadership, and genuine party unity.
Without these, the timing alone will not secure victory for the party in the 2028 presidential and parliamentary elections”.
Mr Dankwah similarly indicated that Dr Bawumia would have a tall order to surmount in 2028 despite the largely comfortable victory he achieved in the presidential primary.
Mr Dankwah, whose polls for the NPP presidential primary produced a near perfect outcome, indicated that the ruling National Democratic Congress (NDC) currently remained in a good position in terms of appeal to the voting public on account of the government’s performance so far.
He said this remained the case regardless of the candidate the party would present at the 2028 polls.
He said his organisation had tested the potential of Dr Bawumia against rumoured figures supposed to have interest in leading the NDC, and in each case the NPP flag bearer trailed.
“When we look at the data for Bawumia against Dr Cassiel Ato Forson, Dr Forson was doing around 58 per cent of the votes against Bawumia’s 38 per cent.
If you take Haruna Iddrisu against Bawumia, Haruna does 56 per cent against Bawumia’s 40 per cent.
“Johnson Asiedu-Nketiah is around 53 per cent and Bawumia is around 45 per cent. So, you can see that the top NDC figures are all showing to be leading Bawumia for 2028,” he said.
Factors
Mr Dankwah said although his polls did not interrogate the reasons for the electorate choosing a particular candidate, he believed that the performance of the economy had made Dr Forson an attractive proposition.
“I mean, if you look at Dr Forson’s performance on the economy, it is phenomenal, and a lot of people are happy because of the economy.
If you look at people who are saying that the country is heading in the right direction, it’s because they feel the economy is improving, and their own salary is improving.
“If you look at the proportion of people who are saying that the living condition has improved compared to last year, it’s quite around 58 per cent.
A lot of the positive things revolve around the economy, and that is the reason why Dr Forson is doing so well against Bawumia at this point,” he said.
Source:
www.graphic.com.gh