Professional services firm, PwC, says the February Consumer Price Index (CPI) strengthens the case for the Bank of Ghana (BoG) to maintain or ease the Monetary Policy Rate (MPR) at its next meeting.
It believes that the probability of a policy rate cut on 18 March 2026 is higher than that of a hold.
In its commentary on Ghana’s inflation, it pointed out that four key considerations are likely to shape the MPC’s decision.
First, it said headline inflation is now comfortably within, and significantly below, the BoG’s medium term target band of 8± 2% [(6–10) %].
“At 3.3%, inflation is not only anchored but showing sustained stability, supported by both food and non-food categories. This provides the Bank with a strong justification to consider a rate cut to support economic activity”.
Secondly, it said the underlying inflation dynamics indicate easing broad-based pressures.
“The decline in imported inflation to 0.6% suggests reduced exchange rate pressures and improved external stability. Declining inflation for goods and services indicates that earlier tightening measures have taken effect, limiting the risk of an immediate inflation rebound”, it added.
It continued that the short-term price pressures remain mild but not alarming:
“The MoM [month-on-month] uptick to 0.8% may draw MPC scrutiny, especially rising non-food MoM inflation (1.2%). However, given the strong YoY [Year-on-Year] disinflationary trend, the MPC is likely to interpret this as seasonal or transitory rather than a reversal of the inflation trend.
It concluded, saying the medium‑term inflation risks are expected to intensify owing to emerging supply‑side shocks.
It highlighted that “Disruptions to regional trade flows–particularly across Sahelian corridors affected by terrorist activity–pose a risk of elevating inflation expectations as key food supply chains become more volatile. Concurrently, the ongoing conflict in the Middle East is likely to exert upward pressure on energy‑related components of the inflation basket in the coming months, increasing the possibility of a temporary interruption to the recent disinflationary trend”.
Based on these factors, PwC said the probability of a policy rate cut on 18 March 2026 is higher than that of a hold, although the decision will depend partly on BoG’s assessment of exchange rate stability, fiscal consolidation commitment, external financing flows and the expected impact of emerging supply-side shocks.
“If concerns about global financial conditions or domestic liquidity risks persist, the MPC may opt for a cautious hold. However, the data strongly supports a measured reduction in the policy rate to stimulate credit, ease borrowing costs, and reinforce the macroeconomic recovery”, it added.
Ghana’s year-on-year inflation declined to 3.3%, down from 3.8% in January 2026 and sharply lower than the 23.1% recorded a year earlier.
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Source: www.myjoyonline.com