International credit ratings agency Fitch Ratings has upgraded Ghana’s Long-Term Foreign-Currency Issuer Default Rating from ‘B-’ to ‘B’, citing sharp improvements in the country’s debt position, stronger economic growth, rising international reserves and continued fiscal consolidation.
The agency, in its latest rating action commentary released on May 8, maintained a Positive Outlook for Ghana, signalling expectations of continued macroeconomic stability and stronger public financial management reforms over the next two years.
The upgrade marks another boost for Ghana’s economic recovery efforts following the severe debt and balance-of-payments crisis that forced the country into a restructuring programme under the IMF-supported economic recovery framework.
According to Fitch, Ghana’s public debt-to-GDP ratio is projected to decline further to 46 per cent by 2027, below the projected median for countries within the ‘B’ rating category. The agency attributed the improvement largely to the appreciation of the cedi, robust economic growth and sustained fiscal discipline.
The ratings agency noted that Ghana recorded a significant reduction in its debt burden in 2025, supported by currency gains and primary fiscal surpluses, adding that improved macroeconomic conditions were helping to lower borrowing costs and stabilise public finances.
Fitch also pointed to a strong build-up in Ghana’s international reserves, which rose sharply in 2025. The agency expects reserves to continue increasing and reach the equivalent of 4.8 months of current external payments by 2027, above the average for similarly rated economies.
It said strong current account surpluses, foreign direct investment inflows and support from multilateral institutions were improving Ghana’s external liquidity position and reducing risks to the economy.
The report highlighted Ghana’s strong performance in the external sector, particularly from gold exports, which helped the country post a record current account surplus of 8.2 per cent of GDP in 2025. Fitch expects the surplus to remain positive over the medium term, although lower global gold prices and rising imports could narrow the gains slightly in 2027.
The agency further commended the government’s fiscal management efforts, forecasting that Ghana would maintain a primary surplus target of 1.5 per cent of GDP in both 2026 and 2027 after recording a higher surplus in 2025.
However, Fitch warned that Ghana’s debt servicing costs remain elevated despite improvements in economic indicators. Interest payments are projected to consume about 20 per cent of government revenue through 2027, significantly higher than the median for countries within the same rating category.
The agency also observed that although Treasury bill rates had declined to historically low levels, inflationary risks and future financing needs could place upward pressure on yields later this year.
On inflation, Fitch noted that Ghana’s annual inflation rate slowed to 3.2 per cent in March 2026, the lowest level recorded since 1999, supported by exchange rate appreciation. Inflation edged up slightly to 3.4 per cent in April, but the agency expects average inflation to continue declining over the next two years.
Fitch said the Bank of Ghana’s cautious monetary policy stance would help preserve stability after the central bank implemented substantial policy rate cuts between July 2025 and March 2026.
The agency also projected that Ghana’s economy would maintain solid growth momentum, with real GDP growth averaging about five per cent through 2027, driven by mining expansion, stronger consumer confidence and easing borrowing costs.
Despite the improved outlook, Fitch cautioned that fiscal slippages, weaker external buffers or rising inflation could negatively affect Ghana’s credit profile in future. Conversely, sustained reforms, stronger reserves and lower debt servicing pressures could support further upgrades.
The ratings agency additionally assessed Ghana’s governance indicators as moderately strong relative to peers, citing peaceful political transitions, institutional stability and established rule of law as positive factors supporting the country’s creditworthiness.
Source:
www.graphic.com.gh