EM Advisory predicts inflation will rise to 11.3% by year-end

While Ghana enjoyed a historic disinflation in 2025, with headline inflation dropping to 5.4%, analysts warn that 2026 could see inflation climb again, potentially reaching 11.3% by December, according to the EM Advisory 2026 macro outlook.

The sharp decline last year was driven by currency appreciation, tight monetary policy, and improved food supply.

“Food accounts for about 43% of the CPI basket, so the drop from 27.8% to 4.9% last year provided substantial relief to household budgets,” the report said. The cedi strengthened by 30% against the dollar in 2025, easing import costs and anchoring inflation expectations.

However, the report warns that base effects, seasonal trends, and expansionary fiscal policy could push inflation upward.

“Food inflation is expected to rebound more sharply, rising from under 5% in early 2026 to over 16% by year-end,” EM Advisory noted, highlighting potential weather disruptions and expiry of temporary price support measures. Non-food inflation is expected to remain more contained, ending the year at 7.3%.

The Bank of Ghana has already begun an easing cycle to stimulate growth while managing inflation expectations.

“The policy rate is expected to reach 14% by mid-year. Governor Dr Johnson Asiama has signalled his ambition to bring lending rates down to approximately 10% over his tenure,” the report said. However, credit costs are likely to remain high due to operational inefficiencies and wide bank spreads.

EM Advisory stresses the importance of supply-side interventions to maintain price stability.

“Policies to further drive down major contributors to inflation, particularly food prices, fuel, and utilities, would be welcome additions. The government should prioritise agriculture, storage infrastructure, and transportation rather than relying solely on monetary policy,” the report concluded.

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