President John Dramani Mahama last Friday delivered a calm but confidence-boosting assessment of Ghana’s current economic trajectory in the second State of the Nation Address of his second term.
After years of hardship marked by high inflation, a weakening cedi, debt restructuring and sluggish business activity, President Mahama’s remarks echoed what many households and firms are beginning to feel on the ground and in their pockets — easing pressure.
Key indicators are stabilising, macroeconomic trends are becoming more predictable and, more importantly, the early signs of a genuine recovery are emerging.
Realities beyond the jargon
Though economic jargon can sometimes be confusing to the ordinary person, these metrics and indices are ultimately reflected in the daily cost of living and prices on the streets and in corner shops nationwide.
For many households, the moderation of inflation from a peak of 54% in 2022 to around 23% in 2024, before dropping to 3.3% in February 2026, has translated into slower increases in the cost of food, transport and utilities.
For businesses, a relatively more stable cedi and improved supply conditions have helped reduce the uncertainty that previously made planning difficult.
President Mahama’s national address underscored these improvements, echoing what traders in markets, manufacturing firms and ordinary workers have begun to feel in their pockets and bottom lines. While there is still room for improvement, the overall direction has been encouraging.
Cocoa crisis, stormy world
But just as Ghana appeared to be rebuilding stability, events beyond the country’s borders have introduced new and immediate threats.
First is the sharp decline in cocoa prices on the international market. After soaring to a record $10,000 per tonne in 2024, cocoa prices have since fallen, with the global benchmark trading at about $3,026 per tonne as of March 4, 2026.
The slump forced Ghana to slash its producer price by 28.6% to GH¢41,392 per tonne for the 2025/26 season, following a near 70% drop in world prices from their late-2024 peak. This has significantly reduced revenue from cocoa exports and further squeezed already thin farmer incomes.
Ghana is not alone. Neighbouring Côte d’Ivoire has also reduced its farm-gate price to 1,200 CFA francs per kilogram from March as unsold stocks accumulate. The price collapse is therefore straining household earnings, government finances and farmer–government relations across West Africa’s cocoa belt.
The second and potentially more contagious issue is the Israel–United States strike on Iran and the rapidly escalating tensions across the Middle East.
These developments have triggered renewed volatility in global commodity markets, highlighting the interconnected nature of the global economy. For a small, open economy like Ghana — heavily dependent on imported fuel, external capital flows and commodity exports — such geopolitical shocks carry significant risks.
Analysts already warn that prolonged instability in the Middle East could push crude oil prices above $100 per barrel.
Implications
For Ghana, this would likely mean higher fuel prices at the pump, increased transport fares, rising production costs for businesses and renewed upward pressure on inflation.
A spike in oil prices could also trigger currency volatility, given Ghana’s large import bill. Businesses working to rebuild their margins could face fresh cost pressures, while households may once again find their budgets stretched.
Beyond oil, global investor sentiment often weakens during geopolitical crises. This could affect Ghana’s access to external financing, delay investment decisions or tighten global credit conditions just as the country emerges from debt restructuring and attempts to rebuild market confidence.
The gains highlighted in the national address, while real, are therefore not immune to external shocks.
Why Ghana is a step ahead
One of Ghana’s advantages, however, is experience. The country has navigated multiple global and domestic crises over the past decades — commodity price shocks, pandemics, financial sector reforms, fiscal consolidations and disruptions in international markets.
Effective crisis management has often depended on strong policy responses, public cooperation and resilience among businesses and households. The current moment calls for the same collective steadiness.
President Mahama himself brings considerable experience. As a former Member of Parliament, minister, vice president and president, he has navigated complex economic challenges before. During his earlier presidency, Ghana experienced significant capital outflows between 2013 and 2016 due to a weakening exchange rate, alongside a severe energy crisis.
Through sustained efforts, the power crisis was eventually resolved, leaving Ghana with excess installed electricity capacity — a legacy that continues to support the country today.
As the world navigates the current turbulent environment, policymakers will need to draw on such experiences and implement people-centred measures. Recent fiscal tightening, increased revenue mobilisation and initiatives such as the Gold Board have helped build buffers for the economy. However, these gains must be strengthened to withstand potential external shocks.
Efforts to boost domestic food production and support small and medium-sized enterprises — the backbone of Ghanaian employment — must also be accelerated to reduce dependence on imports.
The individual’s role
Equally important is the role of individuals and businesses. Ghanaians cannot afford to be passive observers in the face of growing global uncertainty.
Households may need to adopt more deliberate financial planning, cut unnecessary spending and diversify income sources where possible. Businesses must also remain proactive and disciplined, anticipating potential shocks and reducing exposure to external risks.
This period may also create opportunities for innovation. Digital tools, renewable energy solutions, improved logistics systems and smarter business models can help firms remain competitive even in uncertain times.
More importantly, Ghanaians must remain united in both action and outlook. In an increasingly polarised and uncertain world, nations must move with clarity of purpose and shared determination.
Ghana has weathered major challenges before — from the COVID-19 pandemic to debt restructuring and economic instability — and emerged stronger. With collective effort and discipline, the country can overcome the uncertainties ahead.
The writer, Alhaji Seidu Agongo, is a businessman and philanthropist.
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Source: www.myjoyonline.com