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Growth moderates in November 2025, as early Q4 indicators point to slower year-end growth

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The economy expanded 4.2 percent year-on-year in November 2025

The country’s economic growth slowed in November, with industry weighing on overall output even as services remained strong according to provisional data released by the Ghana Statistical Service.

The Monthly Indicator of Economic Growth (MIEG) showed the economy expanded 4.2 percent year-on-year in November 2025, down from 7.1% in the same month a year earlier.

Government Statistician, Dr Alhassan Iddrisu, said the data point to continued expansion, but at a slower pace.

“In plain language, Ghana produced 4.2 percent more goods and services in November 2025 than it did one year earlier,” he said.

“The economy is still growing, but the pace of growth has slowed. Total growth declined from 7.1 percent in November 2024 to 4.2 percent in November 2025. Agriculture improved modestly. Industry slowed sharply. Services remained strong but cooled.”

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Agriculture grew 4.1 percent in November, slightly higher than the 3.8 percent recorded a year earlier.

The sector contributed 32.4 percent to overall growth, supported by stronger crop production and fisheries. Officials said the data show resilience in the sector despite seasonal patterns.

Industry was the main drag. Growth in the sector slowed to 0.4 percent from 6.2 percent a year earlier, contributing just 2.5 percent to overall expansion. The weakness was driven by a decline in mining and quarrying, particularly oil and gas production.

Responding to questions on why strong gold output did not offset the decline, Iddrisu said crude oil contraction was significant.

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“Gold has a higher weight compared to oil and gas,” he said.

“But the contraction in crude oil was so prominent that despite the positive performance in gold, it still dragged industrial performance down to 0.4 percent. Mining and quarrying dropped significantly because of the reduction in petroleum production,” he said.

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Services remained the largest contributor to growth. The sector expanded 6.7 percent in November – down from 10.2 percent a year earlier – and accounted for 57.7 percent of total growth. The expansion was driven by information and communication activities, as well as public administration and social security services.

The MIEG is compiled using international standards under the United Nations System of National Accounts and serves as an early signal of quarterly GDP trends. Officials caution that the figures are provisional and subject to revision.

“The MIEG tells us the economy’s direction and momentum, not the final score,” Dr. Iddrisu said.

“It is based on early data and can be more volatile than quarterly GDP, but it usually points in the same direction as upcoming GDP estimates,” he said.

October and November readings serve as the first two leading indicators for fourth-quarter 2025 GDP, which will be released in March 2026 alongside the December MIEG.

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The latest data suggest that while economic activity remains positive in the fourth quarter, momentum has eased, particularly in industry and parts of services.

Any rebound in oil and gas investment will reflect in the data once production increases are recorded, Dr Iddrisu added, noting that the speed of impact depends on how quickly new investments translate into output.

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Source:
www.ghanaweb.com

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