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The Great African Divergence: Why the dream of a borderless Africa is a dangerous premature reality

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The dream of a “United States of Africa”- a continent where an individual can traverse from the Cape to Cairo with the same ease as a European move through the Schengen Area- has long been the centerpiece of Pan-African rhetoric.

In January 2018, the African Union (AU) launched the Protocol on Free Movement of Persons, a centerpiece of Agenda 2063. High-profile figures and institutions- from the African Development Bank to business moguls like Aliko Dangote- have championed the “Borderless Africa” campaign as the ultimate key to unlocking intra-African trade and industrialization.

They evoke the spirit of Dr. Kwame Nkrumah, who famously declared that “Africa must unite or perish,” arguing that the removal of colonial-era boundaries is the secret to replicating the prosperity of the European Union’s Schengen Area.

However, a romanticized view of Pan-Africanism often ignores the cold, hard data of economic reality. While the vision of a borderless Africa is laudable, the current disparities in development, economic structures, security, and leadership across African nations render its immediate implementation premature and potentially detrimental. To dissolve borders today is to ignore the “Great Divergence” between African economies. Without a foundation of institutional readiness and infrastructure parity, a borderless Africa would not lead to shared prosperity, but rather to a catastrophic migration crisis, social instability, and the eventual stagnation of the continent’s few stable economic hubs.

  1. THE STRUCTURAL CHALLENGES: ADDRESSING THE UNREADINESS

THE DEVELOPMENT GAP AND INFRASTRUCTURE DEFICIT

The primary obstacle to a borderless Africa is the obvious disparity in development levels. We must understand that Kwame Nkrumah’s blueprint for a borderless Africa was not a mere removal of checkpoints; it was a sophisticated continental industrial strategy designed to prevent the “parasitic” economic relationships that contemporary critics fear.

His plan was built on the premise that a borderless market without a unified political and industrial framework would inevitably lead to asymmetric economic shocks, where stable hubs are overwhelmed by labor from stagnant regions.

Nkrumah’s primary strategy to prevent “stable economy burden” was Continental Industrial Planning. He argued that instead of 54 fragmented industrial policies, Africa required a supranational authority to allocate industries based on regional resource endowments. This would ensure that every territory became a productive node in a continental supply chain, rather than just a source of migrants. To him, by synchronizing production, he aimed to achieve infrastructure parity, ensuring that prosperity was decentralized and structural migration was minimized.

Beyond that, he proposed a Central Monetary Zone and an African Central Bank- supported by his recognition that trade liberalization is volatile without a common currency. A unified monetary policy was therefore going to eliminate the currency fluctuations and “beggar-thy-neighbor” devaluations that currently destabilize intra-African trade and make stable economies wary of their neighbors’ fiscal instability.

The fundamental divergence today is that contemporary leaders have adopted a “Trade-First” approach (typified by the AfCFTA), while ignoring Nkrumah’s “Political Kingdom.”

Again, unlike the European Union where the “Schengen” project was preceded by decades of economic convergence and massive structural funds to lift poorer members, Africa remains a continent of extremes today. According to World Bank data, the GDP per capita in nations like Seychelles or Mauritius is over thirty times higher than in countries like Burundi or South Sudan.

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This development gap is exacerbated by a crippling infrastructure deficit. Integration requires more than just the legal right to cross a border; it requires the physical ability to do so efficiently. Currently, the cost of logistics in Africa is among the highest in the world.

When borders are opened in an environment where one country has a functional rail system and another has no paved roads leading to the frontier, the “free movement” becomes a one-way street. Instead of circular trade, we see a permanent exodus from “infrastructure deserts” to “infrastructure oases.”

ECONOMIC DISPARITIES AND THE STRAIN ON HUBS

A borderless Africa would create an unsustainable “pull factor” toward the continent’s few stable economies- South Africa, Mauritius, Egypt, Seychelles, Rwanda, and Ghana. These nations already struggle with high unemployment rates and overstretched social services. For instance, South Africa’s unemployment rate hovers around 30%. If borders were completely dissolved today, the influx of millions of low-skilled laborers from less developed neighbors would collapse the labor markets of these host nations.

We must analyze the “Great Divergence” not just in terms of wealth, but in terms of economic stability. The ECOWAS Protocol A/P1/5/79 was intended to facilitate this movement in West Africa, but its history is marred by sudden border closures (such as Nigeria’s 2019 closure) because of the economic strain caused by smuggling and unregulated migration. If a regional bloc like ECOWAS cannot manage the disparity between Nigeria and its smaller neighbors, a continental-wide open border policy is destined for a much larger failure.

SECURITY CONCERNS AND TRANSNATIONAL CRIME

Security is the most immediate threat to the borderless dream. Africa is currently grappling with sophisticated insurgencies- Boko Haram in the Lake Chad Basin, Al-Shabaab in East Africa, and various jihadist groups in the Sahel. These groups thrive on porous borders. The Protocol Relating to the Mechanism for Conflict Prevention, Management, Resolution, Peace-Keeping and Security (1999) acknowledges that cross-border crime is a major destabilizer.

Opening borders without a centralized, high-tech continental security database would be an invitation for terrorism to export itself across the continent. Furthermore, the movement of illicit goods- drugs, small arms, and human trafficking- would become uncontrollable.

Ghana’s Immigration Act, 2000 (Act 573) provides strict measures for the removal of “prohibited immigrants” and the management of “border-residents” precisely because unregulated entry poses a risk to national sovereignty. A borderless Africa would effectively strip nations of their ability to vet individuals based on national security interests, as seen in the US model where strict immigration is a prerequisite for maintaining domestic safety.

LEADERSHIP, GOVERNANCE, AND THE CORRUPTION TAX

The success of any integration project depends on the “quality of the gatekeeper.” Unfortunately, institutional readiness across Africa is inconsistent. Corruption at border posts remains a “tax” on movement. When leadership is parochial- focused on staying in power rather than regional growth- national interests will always trump continental protocols.

Many African leaders use borders as a tool for political control or to protect domestic monopolies. Without a radical shift toward accountability and the harmonization of judicial systems, “borderless” will simply mean “unregulated,” allowing corrupt officials to facilitate the movement of criminals while hindering the movement of legitimate entrepreneurs who refuse to pay bribes.

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IMMIGRATION ISSUES AND THE SOCIAL IMPACT

In host countries, this leads to a rise in xenophobia and social unrest. We have seen this in the periodic outbreaks of violence against foreign nationals in South Africa and the tightening of residence permit requirements in Ghana.

When a host country’s social services- hospitals, schools, and housing- are overwhelmed by a migrant population that does not contribute to the tax base, the social contract between the state and its citizens breaks down. Even the United States, a nation built on immigration, maintains extreme stringency because it understands that a country that cannot control its borders cannot protect its resources or its social harmony.

2. COUNTERARGUMENTS AND REBUTTALS: THE MYTH OF THE “QUICK FIX”

The Argument for Trade and Cultural Exchange.

Proponents of a borderless Africa argue that the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) cannot succeed without the free movement of people. They point to the European Union, where the ability of a German engineer to work in France or a Polish laborer to work in the UK (pre-Brexit) fueled massive economic growth. They also argue that “African identity” is stifled by colonial borders that split ethnic groups, such as the Ewes between Ghana and Togo or the Yorubas between Nigeria and Benin.

The Rebuttal: Why the EU Model is a False Equivalence

The comparison to the EU is fundamentally flawed for three reasons. First, the EU’s Schengen Agreement only came into effect in 1995- nearly 40 years after the Treaty of Rome began the process of economic integration. Europe spent decades harmonizing their laws, currencies, and industrial standards before they dared to touch the borders. Africa is attempting to do the opposite: opening borders before the economies have even begun to converge.

Second, trade in Africa is not hindered primarily by borders, but by a lack of produce. Most African nations produce similar raw materials (cocoa, oil, minerals) and have little to trade with each other. Opening borders will not magically create industries; it will only create a larger market for foreign-made goods to be smuggled across.

Third, while cultural exchange is a noble goal, it does not pay for public infrastructure. A Ewe man in Ghana may feel a cultural bond with his cousin in Togo, but the Ghanaian government is the one responsible for the Ewe man’s healthcare and security. Borders define the limits of a state’s responsibility. Without these limits, accountability vanishes. The “Pan-African identity” cannot be a substitute for a functional economy.

3. RECOMMENDATIONS AND SOLUTIONS: THE ROAD TO READINESS

Africa is not ready for a borderless reality today, but it can be ready tomorrow if it follows a strategic, phased approach.

I. REGIONAL INTEGRATION AS A TESTING GROUND

Before a continental borderless Africa is realized, regional blocs like ECOWAS, the East African Community (EAC), and the Southern African Development Community (SADC) must perfect their own internal movement. These blocs should focus on the harmonization of digital ID systems. If a Nigerian’s criminal record is not accessible to a Ghanaian immigration officer in real-time, the border cannot be safely opened.

II. THE “INFRASTRUCTURE FIRST” MANDATE

Investment must be shifted from “summit diplomacy” to “physical connectivity.” We need trans-continental highways and railways that function. More importantly, we need to bridge the “Digital Divide.” A borderless Africa requires a digital border- one where visas are processed electronically and movement is tracked via biometric data to prevent the “Lifestyle Crimes” mentioned earlier.

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III. STRENGTHENING THE AFRICAN UNION BORDER PROGRAMME (AUBP)

The AUBP must move beyond resolving boundary disputes and start focusing on “Smart Borders.” This involves training a continental elite border force that is less prone to local corruption and more focused on the Protocol on Democracy and Good Governance.

IV. ADDRESSING THE “PUSH FACTORS” IN FAILING STATES

The most effective way to prevent a migration crisis in a borderless Africa is to ensure that people do not want to leave their home countries. This requires massive investment in education and vocational training in less developed nations. If the youth in Nigeria or South Sudan have viable economic futures at home, they will not become “marginalized youth” seeking to exploit the systems of more stable neighbors.

V. A CONDITIONAL ACCESS MODEL

Instead of a “one-size-fits-all” open border, Africa should adopt a “Tiered Movement” system. Citizens of countries that meet certain benchmarks in governance, security, and economic stability should be granted easier movement, creating an incentive for laggard nations to improve their domestic policies to gain “borderless” status for their citizens.

The dream of a borderless Africa is a powerful testament to our shared history and our aspirations for a unified, industrial future. However, we must distinguish between a destination and a journey. To implement a borderless continent today-amidst radical economic disparities, security vacuums, and institutional fragility-is to invite a crisis that would set the continent back by decades.

We must move away from the allure of symbolic Pan-Africanism toward a “functionalist” integration that prioritizes institutional strength over grand declarations. Only when the foundations of national stability are secure can the borders of the continent truly become bridges rather than barriers.

The US and the EU give a clue: a clue that sovereignty and border control are not the enemies of development; they are the guardians of it. We must build the foundations of infrastructure, security, and governance first. Only when the “Great Divergence” is narrowed can we truly say that Africa is one.

The goal remains a single Africa, but the journey must be strategic, measured, and, above all, rooted in the reality of the present-not for survival.

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DISCLAIMER: The Views, Comments, Opinions, Contributions and Statements made by Readers and Contributors on this platform do not necessarily represent the views or policy of Multimedia Group Limited.


Source: www.myjoyonline.com
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