By Nana Karikari, Senior Global Affairs Correspondent
The Trump administration issued a temporary 30-day sanctions waiver Friday night, authorizing the sale of 140 million barrels of Iranian oil currently sitting on tankers at sea.
This move aims to stabilize volatile global energy markets as the United States and Israel continue a high-stakes military campaign against Tehran. The decision comes as Trump administration officials make a desperate push to secure every available barrel of oil amid a worsening energy crisis, even if it means lifting sanctions on the very country they are fighting against.
The volume of crude unlocked by this decision is substantial. According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, 140 million barrels represent enough oil to satisfy total global demand for approximately one and a half days. The United States has sanctioned Iranian oil on and off for decades, but the current supply bottleneck traces back to 2018, when the administration blocked sales after abandoning the Iran nuclear agreement.
Economic Warfare and Market Stabilization
The waiver specifically targets oil that was already loaded and in transit as of March 20. By bringing this “afloat” supply into the formal market, the administration seeks to lower crude prices that have surged to around $110 (approx. GHS 1,735) a barrel during the conflict. Brent crude, the global oil benchmark, hit $112 (approx. GHS 1,767) a barrel on
Friday, while U.S. gas prices approach a national average of $4 (approx. GHS 63.11) per gallon.
U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent framed the decision as a tactical use of Iran’s own resources. “By temporarily unlocking this existing supply for the world, the United States will quickly bring approximately 140 million barrels of oil to global markets, expanding the amount of worldwide energy and helping to relieve the temporary pressures on supply caused by Iran,” Bessent said in a statement on X. “In essence, we will be using the Iranian barrels against Tehran to keep the price down as we continue Operation Epic Fury,” Bessent said.
Strategic Countermeasures Against Supply Threats
U.S. Ambassador to the UN Mike Waltz defended the move as a “very temporary” measure necessary to defeat the Iranian strategy of driving energy prices to unsustainable levels. With the Iranian regime effectively closing the Strait of Hormuz, a transit point for 20% of the world’s oil—the administration has struggled to fill the supply gap. “The measure is targeted toward oil that’s already out there on ships, already out there in storage,” Waltz said. “So we’re going to allow it to go in a temporary basis to some of our allies like India, Japan and others so that this strategy from Iran, the Iranian regime, doesn’t work,” he added.
Navigating the Geopolitics of War
The decision presents a complex optical challenge for Washington. While the United States is at war with the Iranian regime, this license technically allows the sale of the country’s most valuable export to help finance its war against the United States and its allies. The dynamics are particularly awkward for President Trump, who repeatedly criticized former President Barack Obama for sending cash to Iran as part of the previous nuclear deal. Trump has largely brushed off the impact, arguing the war is worth any “short-term pain” it causes.
“This is the biggest disruption to the oil markets that you can imagine,” said Neelesh Nerurkar, a former senior Trump Energy Department official. “The shortfall is so large that the measures available are dwarfed by how much oil is not reaching the market.”
Analysts note that the waiver may be a pragmatic acknowledgement of existing leaks. Iran was selling its oil anyway, with China serving as its biggest customer. “Iran was going to sell those barrels anyway,” said one person familiar with internal discussions. “Instead of going to China, we make it sellable to Thailand or Vietnam.”
Financial Restrictions and Revenue Control
Despite the authorization to sell, the administration maintains that Iran will not see an immediate windfall. Existing sanctions on Iran’s financial sector remain in place, complicating Tehran’s ability to collect proceeds.
“Iran will have difficulty accessing any revenue generated and the United States will continue to maintain maximum pressure on Iran and its ability to access the international financial system,” Bessent wrote on X. He also ruled out having the government directly intervene in oil markets to slow the rise in prices. White House spokeswoman Taylor Rogers added that the team has “considered all the options on the table” and expects prices to “drop rapidly” once military objectives are completed.
Pressure on African Economies and Ghana’s Fuel Pump
The global price surge has already reached African markets, where fuel importers face a severe squeeze. In Ghana, the National Petroleum Authority (NPA) recently raised price floors, with petrol projected to reach GHS 14.32 per litre and diesel hitting GHS 16.10 per litre. While Ghana benefits from high gold prices—now near $2,200 (approx. GHS 24,000) per ounce—the rising cost of imported refined products threatens to drive up food inflation and transport fares. Experts warn that unless the Strait of Hormuz reopens, African central banks may be forced to halt interest rate cuts to combat renewed inflationary pressure.
Broader Shifts in Sanctions Policy
This waiver is the third time in two weeks that the U.S. has eased energy sanctions, following a similar general license issued last week desanctioning hundreds of millions of barrels of Russian oil. The move earned support from David Malpass, former World Bank president, who characterized it as “a strong economic step.”
However, some experts remain skeptical. “If they pursue this strategy and allow buyers to buy off this oil on the water, it’ll go quickly,” said Gregory Brew, a senior analyst at Eurasia Group. “Then we’ll be faced with the interesting proposal of dropping sanctions on Iranian oil generally.”
Balancing Market Stability and Strategic Pressure
The 30-day window reflects a delicate calibration between domestic economic needs and foreign policy objectives. Landon Derentz, a former national security official, noted: “The nuance here is there isn’t nuance. Nobody else has a bright idea.” While the administration prioritizes reducing “pain at the pump,” it must ensure the easing of
sanctions does not signal a softening of resolve. Fundamentally, the success of the waiver will be measured by its ability to cool the energy market without providing the Iranian regime the liquidity required to sustain its defensive operations.
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Source:
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