Growth in Sub Sharan Africa is expected to soften to 4.3%, in 2026, a 0.3 percentage point lower than the projections in January 2026, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has revealed in its April 2026 Sub-Saharan Africa Update.
It is projecting an uptick in median inflation to 5.0% by the end of 2026.
However, there is significant heterogeneity in the outlook, with growth accelerating among many oil exporting countries because of stronger export revenues and higher government spending, but decreasing for low-income countries and fragile states, many of whom are oil importers and have limited buffers.
“Although prices of key non-fuel commodities (such as gold and copper) have softened since the start of the war, they remain higher than the average for 2025. Median sovereign spreads for countries in the region are still well below the levels seen in April 2025”, the report stated.
According to the Fund, these tailwinds have lessened the net impact of the shock thus far.
Growth is projected to pick up again to 4.4 % in 2027, and median inflation to moderate to 3.9% by the end of 2027, in line with the assumption under the reference scenario that the shock is expected to be short-lived.
Current Account Balances
Meanwhile, current account balances are expected to vary across countries. The median current account deficit is projected to narrow by 0.3 percentage point of Gross Domestic Product [GDP] to 3.5% of GDP in 2026.
This reflects improvements among oil exporters of about 1.1 percentage points of GDP from higher oil prices and improvements among non-oil resource-intensive countries of 0.7 percentage point of GDP from higher metal prices, compared to 2025.
The current account deficit is expected to worsen in non-resource-intensive countries by about 1.4 percentage points of GDP.
Fiscal Deficit to Worsen
Also, fiscal deficits are projected to worsen in most countries. Median fiscal deficits would reach 3.2% of GDP in 2026, higher by 0.2% of GDP compared to 2025.
However, projections diverge widely across country groups: deficits are expected to widen by about 1.0 percentage point of GDP in oil exporters, while narrowing by 0.1 percentage point of GDP in non-oil-resource-intensive countries.
Deficits in non-resource intensive countries are projected to remain broadly the same as last year. “Unchanged administered fuel prices, though, are delaying pass-through, raising fiscal risks and the possibility of expenditure overruns in many countries”, the Fund mentioned.
For example, in Cameroon, Côte d’Ivoire, Rwanda, Senegal, and Togo, pump prices remain controlled for now, cushioning near-term inflation but increasing subsidy burdens, external financing needs, and the risk of sharper future adjustments.
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