Ratings agency, Fitch, says it anticipates the Bank of Ghana to remain prudent and pause its easing cycle to prevent inflation risks from materialising, after a cumulative 1,400 basis points monetary policy rate cut between July 2025 and March 2026, to 14%.
This is part of notes by the UK-based rating agency after upgrading Ghana’s credit profile to B with a stable outlook.
According to the rating agency, inflation is expected to rise as the pass-through abates and high oil prices affect domestic prices.
“Inflation slowed to 3.2% year-on-year in March 2026 (its lowest level since 1999), helped by a pass-through of exchange rate appreciation. Inflation marginally rose to 3.4% in April 2026, and we expect it will gradually rise by the end of the year, as the pass-through abates and high oil prices affect domestic prices. On an annual average basis, inflation will remain on a declining trend in 2026 and 2027”, it stated.
It continued that real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth will remain solid through 2027 and average 5%.
This will be supported by strong gold mining prospects, firmer consumer confidence enabled by a decline in inflation and borrowing costs, and a less restrictive fiscal policy stance.
ESG – Governance
Fitch saidGhana has a medium World Bank Governance Indicators (WBGI) ranking at the 51st percentile, reflecting a recent record of peaceful political transitions, a moderate level of rights for participation in the political process, moderate institutional capacity, established rule of law and a moderate level of corruption.
Negative Rating Action.
Fitch enumerated factors that could lead to negative rating action. They include public finance and external finances.
For public finances, it said a weaker fiscal performance, evidenced by a lower-than-anticipated primary fiscal surplus, for instance, due to markedly higher spending and failure to continue to implement public financial management reforms.
Again, it said a rise in debt service costs, evidenced by an increased interest/revenue ratio, for instance, due to higher-than-anticipated inflation.
On external finances. It said failure to continue to significantly build external buffers, for instance, due to adverse terms of trade developments.
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